In March I discussed the three cycles that were operating in the Indian markets. Here is an update on how they have fared.
First on the 70 day bottoming cycle, I made a mistake in assuming that it might not work anymore because it was coinciding with the 89 day top scheduled in the first week of March. It actually made an accurate bottom on the 26th of February which is 71 days from 17 December and then indicated the next bottom on 7th may which was pretty accurate as well. The next bottom was due on 16th July which is not clearly visible. So let that be for now.
The 89 day topping cycle beautifully caught the 4th March top and then indicated a top on the 1st of June. This worked pretty well too as the nifty went into a free fall from 2nd of June after the RBI policy. This cycle now indicates a potential top on 29-31 August.
The most important and cunning of all was the 160 day bottoming cycle. Counting from 17th December gave 26th may. Despite allowing for considerable leeway, this did not fit in and I felt that the most consistent and important cycle had disappeared. However recently I noticed that after 17th December, the market made a secondary bottom on 7th January before it really took off in rally mode. 156-160 days from 7th Jan gives 12-16 June. INCREDIBLE. The major bottom so far. Apparently the market has skipped the period between 27th December and 7th January, the very two bottoms which I had considered as sandwich bottoms in that post. If this is just a coincidence, fine. Just going one at a time here, the next 160 day bottom would appear somewhere around 20-24 November. Let's see what happens.
The 89 day topping cycle beautifully caught the 4th March top and then indicated a top on the 1st of June. This worked pretty well too as the nifty went into a free fall from 2nd of June after the RBI policy. This cycle now indicates a potential top on 29-31 August.
The most important and cunning of all was the 160 day bottoming cycle. Counting from 17th December gave 26th may. Despite allowing for considerable leeway, this did not fit in and I felt that the most consistent and important cycle had disappeared. However recently I noticed that after 17th December, the market made a secondary bottom on 7th January before it really took off in rally mode. 156-160 days from 7th Jan gives 12-16 June. INCREDIBLE. The major bottom so far. Apparently the market has skipped the period between 27th December and 7th January, the very two bottoms which I had considered as sandwich bottoms in that post. If this is just a coincidence, fine. Just going one at a time here, the next 160 day bottom would appear somewhere around 20-24 November. Let's see what happens.
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