So anybody up for the eight year cycle in the Indian Markets?

     The three major bear markets that have hit Indian markets in the last 3 decades shaved off approximately 60% of the main indices each time and occurred in 1992, 2000 and 2008. This eight year interval may sound like a coincidence, but maybe it isn't.  Maybe its a cycle.  If so, then its time to prepare for another 60% cut !

    All bear markets had their reasons. 1992 saw the Harshad Mehta scam, 2000 saw the internet bubble bursting as well as the  Ketan Parekh scam,  2008 the global financial crisis.  Bear markets of such magnitude always need a reason for the rationalists to discuss and debate. What most people don't realize is that nature has its own tidal rhythm.

     I don't hear anyone talk of the occurrence of this cycle and hence am inclined to believe that it might have one more go.
  
       Indian markets are stalling and fatigued and probably on the cusp of starting an intermediate downtrend. I believe the downside potential is huge.

        I shall talk more about such long term cycles in some future blog. Till then my sincere advice to all for the next 15-18 months.... Exitsville.
    
     
     
       
     

Possibility of an intermediate top in the Nifty

Nifty from august 2013

A chart showing the short term cycles on the nifty and the projections thereof.
An average 89 day topping cycle accompanied by a 70 day bottoming cycle seem to be ruling the nifty's moves.

My own suspect is that the 70 day bottom cycle may not work any more or may reverse into a bottom-top cycle...(this can happen) 

Also note that in this cycle the last bottom was taken as 27-12-14, the average of the 17-12-14 and 7-1-15 bottoms....(This sandwiching of bottom dates happens as well)

The Nifty appears to have made a short term top today 4th march thereby confirming the continuation of the 89 day topping cycle. Note that tops aren't absolute and can be exceeded i.e. they can be intermediate tops....after all we are in an uptrend...

However the most important cycle shown above is the 160 day bottoming cycle which predicts the next major bottom between 24-5-15 to  30-5-15...(Sell before may and go away?)....The position of this bottom may decide whether the uptrend is over or intact..

Please note that cycles are temporary transient phenomena that disappear sooner or later...But till they work, they can work beautifully.  Go only one cycle at a time...

VERY IMPORTANT ..... This is not a recommendation to buy or sell.....blah blah blah....

	89 day topping cycle
date		days
9/12/13
10/03/14		91
11/06/14		93
8/09/14		89
4/12/14		87
4/03/15		90

------------	70 day bottoming cycle
date		days
22/03/14
30/05/14		69
8/08/14		70
17/10/14		70
27/12/14		71
7/03/15		70

------------

	160 day bottoming cycle
date		days
28/08/13
4/02/14		160
14/07/14		160
17/12/14		156
26/05/15	?	160